Predicting 2016-2017 NHL Season Results

Now to some new posts!

When making a prediction engine, it’s always fun to see what next season looks like. We have the schedule for the 2016-2017 NHL season, and we have all the data from the past seasons, so let’s get some calculations going!

This will hopefully eventually maybe become a daily-updating model, that watches teams as they play though the season to see what happens. The cool thing would be to have available the effect of different scenarios, such as winning ‘tonight’s’ game, or someone elses’ fate depending on your own results. These are maybe eventual projects.

All the code I’m using is available in earlier posts, so all you need to know is:

  • There are no corrections for draft picks, trades, retirements, or coaching changes.
  • For the time dependant Dixon-Coles, I’m using data for the past 10 years only, including playoffs, with a ξ value of 0.0191464.
  • For the quick Dixon-Coles, I’m using only 2 years of data.
  • Each team has 0.5 chance of winning if a game goes to overtime.
  • I’m simulating the season 1,000 times for each model.

So, without further ado, here is where I predict each team to come:

## Warning in log(tau(y1, y2, lambda, mu, rho)): NaNs produced
## Warning in log(tau(y1, y2, lambda, mu, rho)): NaNs produced
## Warning in log(tau(y1, y2, lambda, mu, rho)): NaNs produced
## Warning in log(tau(y1, y2, lambda, mu, rho)): NaNs produced
## Warning in log(tau(y1, y2, lambda, mu, rho)): NaNs produced
## Warning in log(tau(y1, y2, lambda, mu, rho)): NaNs produced
## Warning in log(tau(y1, y2, lambda, mu, rho)): NaNs produced
## Warning in log(tau(y1, y2, lambda, mu, rho)): NaNs produced
## Warning in log(tau(y1, y2, lambda, mu, rho)): NaNs produced
## Warning in log(tau(y1, y2, lambda, mu, rho)): NaNs produced
## Warning in log(tau(y1, y2, lambda, mu, rho)): NaNs produced
## Warning in log(tau(y1, y2, lambda, mu, rho)): NaNs produced

Ten Year (Time weighted) Predictions:

## Loading required package: reshape2

plot of chunk prediction2017_ten_plot

  Points Points_StDev Playoffs Playoffs_StDev Presidents Presidents_StDev
Anaheim Ducks 109.000 7.233416 0.999 0.0316386 0.375 0.4842630
Arizona Coyotes 80.200 7.453306 0.245 0.4301299 0.000 0.0000000
Boston Bruins 92.403 7.785852 0.705 0.4564995 0.012 0.1089943
Buffalo Sabres 81.846 7.477373 0.187 0.3903020 0.001 0.0316386
Calgary Flames 83.726 8.131040 0.419 0.4935513 0.001 0.0316386
Carolina Hurricanes 87.105 7.681840 0.462 0.4987185 0.000 0.0000000
Chicago Blackhawks 92.570 7.736179 0.817 0.3870538 0.010 0.0995984
Colorado Avalanche 80.640 7.929385 0.265 0.4417752 0.000 0.0000000
Columbus Blue Jackets 79.613 7.880256 0.149 0.3564451 0.000 0.0000000
Dallas Stars 88.630 7.869941 0.667 0.4714044 0.003 0.0547448
Detroit Red Wings 85.773 7.553647 0.361 0.4807715 0.001 0.0316386
Edmonton Oilers 76.206 7.489911 0.115 0.3193414 0.000 0.0000000
Florida Panthers 93.698 7.848801 0.766 0.4237962 0.009 0.0945350
Los Angeles Kings 103.748 7.339339 0.993 0.0834562 0.124 0.3299116
Minnesota Wild 88.838 7.829049 0.680 0.4669433 0.003 0.0547448
Montreal Canadiens 66.957 7.520434 0.001 0.0316386 0.000 0.0000000
Nashville Predators 98.922 7.397501 0.963 0.1889508 0.037 0.1889508
New Jersey Devils 72.540 7.470007 0.019 0.1366615 0.000 0.0000000
New York Islanders 92.233 7.742756 0.696 0.4600804 0.007 0.0834562
New York Rangers 90.219 7.921334 0.595 0.4913837 0.005 0.0706043
Ottawa Senators 83.888 8.195576 0.291 0.4546784 0.000 0.0000000
Philadelphia Flyers 96.354 7.382187 0.864 0.3431319 0.021 0.1435277
Pittsburgh Penguins 106.311 7.446622 0.992 0.0891734 0.217 0.4122105
San Jose Sharks 98.719 7.883655 0.954 0.2096949 0.051 0.2202181
St. Louis Blues 91.675 7.620314 0.801 0.3992298 0.006 0.0773043
Tampa Bay Lightning 98.241 7.494192 0.917 0.2761585 0.035 0.1839638
Toronto Maple Leafs 74.215 7.567980 0.030 0.1707581 0.000 0.0000000
Vancouver Canucks 65.538 7.888516 0.005 0.0706043 0.000 0.0000000
Washington Capitals 101.645 7.395835 0.965 0.1839638 0.082 0.2746395
Winnipeg Jets 72.839 8.016188 0.077 0.2668584 0.000 0.0000000

Two Year (Fast DC) Predictions:

plot of chunk prediction2017_two_plot

  Points Points_StDev Playoffs Playoffs_StDev Presidents Presidents_StDev
Anaheim Ducks 93.169 7.731947 0.770 0.4212540 0.029 0.1679745
Arizona Coyotes 68.936 8.027814 0.015 0.1216742 0.000 0.0000000
Boston Bruins 90.412 7.684662 0.608 0.4883438 0.016 0.1256008
Buffalo Sabres 67.986 7.788246 0.005 0.0706043 0.000 0.0000000
Calgary Flames 85.326 7.933175 0.375 0.4846078 0.002 0.0447214
Carolina Hurricanes 80.648 7.709971 0.169 0.3751272 0.001 0.0316386
Chicago Blackhawks 97.545 7.249420 0.914 0.2800491 0.083 0.2761585
Colorado Avalanche 85.329 7.716444 0.375 0.4846078 0.002 0.0447214
Columbus Blue Jackets 79.475 7.746379 0.123 0.3287661 0.000 0.0000000
Dallas Stars 92.013 7.886374 0.720 0.4490768 0.016 0.1256008
Detroit Red Wings 89.420 7.765708 0.567 0.4956501 0.014 0.1176081
Edmonton Oilers 70.936 7.846020 0.015 0.1216742 0.000 0.0000000
Florida Panthers 90.791 7.517580 0.633 0.4824692 0.015 0.1216742
Los Angeles Kings 96.647 7.409917 0.896 0.3055663 0.082 0.2746395
Minnesota Wild 94.382 7.674147 0.816 0.3874415 0.040 0.1961554
Montreal Canadiens 88.925 7.933237 0.528 0.4993810 0.010 0.0995984
Nashville Predators 95.036 7.680257 0.831 0.3751272 0.048 0.2139803
New Jersey Devils 79.252 7.716103 0.127 0.3328050 0.001 0.0316386
New York Islanders 93.563 7.780624 0.743 0.4374170 0.032 0.1761763
New York Rangers 99.077 7.910492 0.915 0.2791610 0.145 0.3524535
Ottawa Senators 89.174 7.880902 0.548 0.4978538 0.008 0.0891734
Philadelphia Flyers 85.659 7.927004 0.348 0.4764627 0.006 0.0773043
Pittsburgh Penguins 93.905 7.709638 0.764 0.4250474 0.033 0.1778790
San Jose Sharks 91.245 7.829255 0.691 0.4621827 0.021 0.1435277
St. Louis Blues 94.316 7.626936 0.814 0.3890674 0.035 0.1839638
Tampa Bay Lightning 98.013 7.529268 0.901 0.2989611 0.113 0.3169099
Toronto Maple Leafs 75.768 8.129146 0.063 0.2432063 0.000 0.0000000
Vancouver Canucks 84.334 7.855733 0.339 0.4738439 0.003 0.0547448
Washington Capitals 101.966 7.567301 0.958 0.2007900 0.242 0.4283335
Winnipeg Jets 86.073 7.776350 0.429 0.4950918 0.003 0.0547448
Written on August 29, 2016